XRPUSD: What Next? (April 15th)

  BTC Strength Signals Risk-On Behavior — but Caution Remains

• Bitcoin is holding above $85,800, shifting market sentiment from "extreme fear" into a less bearish zone.
• USD strength vs. crypto may waver slightly in the short term if BTC rallies, as seen in risk-on currencies like AUDUSD, NZDUSD, and GBPUSD.
• That said, significant outflows from crypto funds (e.g., the $795M weekly outflow) indicate broader uncertainty and may support USD strength as a safe haven—especially USDCHF and USDJPY.

  Bitcoin Dominance Rising — Liquidity Rotation in Play

• BTC's market dominance has increased to 62.95%, hinting at a risk rotation away from altcoins.
• This could indicate increased global demand for USD liquidity (to exit alt positions), keeping DXY supported and pairs like EURUSD under pressure.
• Equities start selling off, and JPY and CHF could benefit from being traditional safe havens, particularly in USDJPY and EURCHF.

  Crypto Policy in the U.S. — Watching for USD Impact

• Bitcoin is supported by U.S. policy buzz:
  • Potential Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
  • New York's proposal to use BTC for state payments.
• If these gain traction, they could weaken USD sentiment slightly as they signal long-term diversification away from fiat reserves.

  Short-Term Volatility + Long-Term Accumulation

• Despite ETF outflows, institutional holdings are growing (e.g., 3,459 BTC added by Strategy).
• Crypto dips are being bought, which may limit USD upside against risk assets — but unless BTC breaks $86K+, upside FX pressure is muted.

XRPUSD – D1 Timeframe

The slope of the trendline resistance indicates that the price is in a downtrend. The double bearish break of structure, Fibonacci retracement level, and the highlighted supply region provide additional confluences for a bearish sentiment.

XRPUSD – H4 Timeframe

On the 4-hour timeframe chart of XRPUSD (Ripple), we discover an elusive SBR pattern at the top of the previous bearish momentum. As a result of all the aforementioned confluences, the rational expectation would be a rejection from the supply zone for a bearish continuation.

Analyst's Expectations: 

Direction: Bearish

Target- 1.71218

Invalidation- 2.60182

CONCLUSION

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